I remember the exact moment the LABUBU Macaron craze hit its peak. My phone was buzzing nonstop. It was a chaotic symphony of DMs, group chat notifications, and Shopify alerts from my store, PopNya. Everyone wanted to know the same thing: "Did you get Toffee?" "Is the secret brown labubu really selling for $400?" "How do I find one?!"
It was wild. And it perfectly captures the magic, madness, and occasional misery of chasing a labubu doll secret.
If you're new here, you might just see a cute, buck-toothed monster. But for those of us deep in the world of designer toys, the "secret" or "chase" figure is the holy grail. It's the golden ticket. It's that ultra-rare pull that turns a $15 blind box into a piece worth hundreds. But there's so much more to it than just the odds printed on the box. As someone who buys, sells, and collects these little guys, I want to give you the real playbook, the stuff you don't learn from a WikiHow article.
The 1-in-144 Myth and the Collector's Reality
Pop Mart officially states the odds of pulling a secret are 1 in 144. That means for every 144 individual boxes produced, there is one secret. Since a sealed case contains 12 boxes, this translates to one secret in every 12 cases.
Sounds simple, right? Wrong.
These odds are a statistical average across a massive production run. In reality, it's pure, unadulterated luck. I've personally opened three full cases (36 boxes) of a series and pulled zero secrets. Zero. The feeling is… not great. Then, I've watched a customer walk into a store, buy a single loose box on a whim, and pull the secret right there on the counter. I've seen it happen. The joy on their face is incredible, but for the person who just bought a whole case and got nothing, it's a gut punch.
The odds don't guarantee you anything. They just tell you how special it is when you do beat them. And Pop Mart knows this. They've even introduced "super secrets" in some series with even crazier odds, like 1/288 or higher, just to fuel the fire. The hunt is a core part of the experience they're selling.
The Modern Hype Monsters: Toffee and Lychee
If you want to understand the modern labubu doll secret market, you have to look at The Monsters Exciting Macaron series. This series didn't just have one secret; it had two, and they created a frenzy I hadn't seen in a long time.
First, the secret brown labubu, officially named "Toffee." This figure is a masterclass in design. It's a simple, elegant design with a matte, coffee-colored finish and a tiny, almost sad-looking macaron accessory. It's understated. And people lost their minds over it.
The day it was released, I saw Toffee selling for around $150 on secondary markets. A week later? $300. At its absolute peak, I saw verified sales pushing $450. That's a 30x return on a single blind box. The neutral colorway meant it fit into any collection and any home aesthetic, making its appeal incredibly broad. It wasn't just a toy; it was a little piece of art. If you want to see just how wild the Macaron aftermarket got, I broke down more of the pricing and fakes in The Honest Labubu Macaron Buyer's Guide.
Then there's the other secret from that series, the labubu pink red eyes, "Lychee." This one is Toffee's polar opposite. It's a vibrant, almost fluorescent pink with striking red eyes. It's loud and in your face. While also a labubu doll secret rare figure, Lychee's market never quite reached Toffee's heights. It typically trades for about 20-30% less. Why? My theory is that the aggressive color, while cool, is harder to display. It's a statement piece, whereas Toffee is a versatile classic. This is a perfect example of how not all secrets are created equal, even when they come from the same box. The community decides what becomes the true "grail." For more on the nuances of pink figures, I've written about it in The Pink Labubu Buyer's Guide.
A Throwback to the OG: The LABUBU Black One
Before the Macaron madness, before TikTok influencers were unboxing cases, there was Zimomo. Specifically, the labubu black one. Zimomo is one of Kasing Lung's other monster characters, often featured alongside Labubu. The all-black Zimomo chase figure from The Monsters Toys series was, for a long time, the secret to get.
It has a totally different vibe from the newer, cuter secrets. It's darker, more aligned with the original "monster" art of Kasing Lung. It doesn't have a cute theme like macarons or flowers. It's just a pure, sleek, black monster. And it's awesome.
Its value has been more stable over time compared to the explosive but volatile prices of a new labubu secret. It's a collector's piece, a nod to the history of the line. While a new collector might be chasing Toffee, a seasoned fan often has a deep appreciation for the black Zimomo. It is a different era of the brand. It's less about the hype and more about the art. Owning one feels less like a flex and more like a badge of honor for being in the scene for a while.
The Hunt: What Actually Works (And What's a Waste of Time)Okay, let's get practical. You want a secret. How do you improve your chances? First, let me tell you what doesn't work anymore.
The Weight Trick is Dead. Back in the day, you could sometimes identify a rare figure by its weight. A secret with a heavy accessory might weigh a few grams more. People would bring tiny digital scales to stores. It was ridiculous. Pop Mart got wise to this. Now, the weight of every box is incredibly standardized. They use uniform internal packaging and sometimes even add tiny counterweights to regular figures to throw people off. I've weighed hundreds of boxes at PopNya. Trust me, it's a fool's errand now.
Shaking and Squeezing is Useless. Same deal. People used to shake boxes, listening for a specific rattle. The internal plastic trays and bags have been redesigned to hold the figures so snugly that you can't feel or hear a thing. You're more likely to damage the box (a big no-no for collectors) than you are to find a secret.
So, what does work?
Strategy 1: The Sealed Case. This is the most reliable, albeit expensive, method. Buying a factory-sealed case of 12 gives you the best statistical odds. Most series are packed with a guarantee of a full set of the 12 regular designs OR 11 regulars and 1 secret. So, if you buy a case, you have a 1-in-12 chance of that case containing a secret. It's the only way to get a somewhat predictable shot. This is what serious collectors and resellers do.
Strategy 2: The "Loose Box" Gamble. This is the purest form of the hunt. You walk into a store, you look at a fresh display of boxes, and you pick one. Or two. Or five. It's a lottery ticket. There's no skill, no trick. It's all vibes. This is where the most magical pull stories come from. It's also where the most disappointment lives. My advice? Set a budget and stick to it. Buy a few boxes for the thrill, but don't expect anything. If you get lucky, amazing! If not, you still have a cool new figure.
Strategy 3: The Secondary Market. This is the most controversial but often the smartest move. If you want one specific labubu doll secret rare figure, like Toffee, just buy it. Yes, you'll pay the premium. But think about it: to get a 1-in-12 shot, you have to buy a case for around $200. If you don't pull the secret, you're out $200 and have 12 regular figures to deal with. You might have to buy several cases before you find one. Suddenly, paying $300 for the exact figure you want doesn't seem so crazy. It removes the gamble. You get your grail, guaranteed.
Our Take: The Real Talk on Chasing Secrets
Honestly? The chase can be both the best and worst part of this hobby. The dopamine rush of pulling a secret is unlike anything else. Your hands shake, you let out a little scream, it's a genuine thrill. But the flip side is the crushing weight of spending hundreds of dollars on cases and coming up empty-handed. It can turn a fun hobby into a stressful, expensive obsession. I've seen people get frustrated and quit collecting altogether because they were only focused on the hunt.
My advice is to find a balance. Enjoy the surprise of blind boxes, but don't let the pursuit of a secret ruin the joy of the regular figures, which are fantastic in their own right. Kasing Lung's designs are brilliant across the board.There's no shame in going to the secondary market to complete your collection and secure a figure you love. The goal is to have a collection that makes you happy, not one that stressed you out.
And be careful of fakes! The more valuable the secret, the more fakes you'll see. Look for crisp box printing, high-quality paint jobs, and the correct texture. The fake Toffee figures, for example, are often glossy instead of matte and have sloppy paint around the eyes.
The world of LABUBU is vast and exciting. Whether you're a seasoned hunter or just starting out, the allure of the secret is undeniable. Just remember to enjoy the journey.com/collections/labubu) at PopNya, we're just as obsessed as you are.
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