I see it happen every single day. Someone scrolls through Instagram, and BAM. They see it. The one. Maybe it's the adorable Sea Salt Coconut from the Exciting Macaron series, or the mischievous little Toffee from the Sweet Bean collaboration. It's not just a want; it's a need. The problem? It's one of twelve possible designs in a blind box.
The thought of buying box after box, ending up with a pile of duplicates and a much lighter wallet, is daunting. And that's when you probably typed "labubu confirmed colorway" into Google and found your way here.
Welcome. As someone who runs PopNya and personally opens cases of these little monsters to stock our shop, I live in the world of confirmed figures. It's not about cheating the system; it's about providing a service for collectors who know exactly what they want. But there's a lot more to it than just slapping a higher price tag on the popular ones. Let's get into the nitty-gritty of what you're actually paying for.
The Real Math Behind a Confirmed Figure
When you see a confirmed LABUBU for, say, $25 when the blind box retails for $15, it's easy to think it's just a $10 markup for convenience. But the economics are a bit more complicated, and it all starts with a sealed case.
To get a confirmed set of figures, we don't just buy one or two boxes. We buy a factory-sealed case, which contains 12 unique blind boxes. In theory, this case holds one of each of the 12 regular designs in the series. The cost for me to get that case is already well over $150, plus shipping.
Then, the "confirmation" process begins. We carefully slice the tape on each of the 12 individual boxes, slide out the inner contents just enough to see the character card, identify the figure, and then put it all back. The figure itself remains untouched in its sealed foil bag.
Here's the part most people don't see: for every super popular, high-demand colorway, there are two or three less popular ones. In The Monsters Exciting Macaron series, everyone wants Lychee, Sea Salt Coconut, and maybe Sesame Bean. They fly off the shelves. But what about Green Tea or Pistachio? They're cute, but they just don't have the same hype.
As a seller, the higher price on a confirmed Lychee helps subsidize the fact that the Pistachio might sit in my inventory for months, or that I might have to sell it for barely over retail cost just to move it. The price of a labubu confirmed colorway isn't just about that one figure; it's a delicate balancing act across the entire series. You're not just paying for the figure; you're paying for the guarantee, the labor of opening and sorting, and the risk the seller takes on the less popular inventory. It's a fundamental part of the collector's market, and understanding it helps clarify whether a confirmed figure is truly worth it for you.
"Confirmed" Isn't a Single Definition: The Details Matter
When you're shopping around, you'll see terms thrown about. "Confirmed." "Open Box." "No Blind Box." It can be confusing, but there are generally two states you'll find a confirmed figure in, and it's a detail I'm very particular about at PopNya.
1. Box-Opened, Foil-Sealed: This is the gold standard for confirmed figures and the only way we sell them. The outer box has been opened to identify the character via the card, but the figure itself is still 100% sealed in its original silver foil pouch. The collector card and any accessories are all there. This method preserves the final, satisfying "unbagging" experience for you, the buyer. You still get that little thrill of tearing open the foil to reveal your figure for the first time.
2. Foil-Opened: This means both the box and the inner foil have been opened. The figure is completely revealed. Sellers sometimes do this to create pristine photo listings or to do a quality check for paint flaws on very high-value figures, like secrets. Personally, I feel this takes away a bit of the magic. For some collectors, a foil-opened figure has slightly less value than a foil-sealed one. Be sure you know which one you're buying. If a listing's photos show the actual, unwrapped figure, it's foil-opened.
One tiny detail only a seller would notice: the packaging materials change between series. The foil bags for the new "Fall in Wild" series are noticeably thicker and have a more matte finish compared to the crinkly, thin foil from the older "Forest Concert" series. This is a good thing for quality, but it means the old (and mostly useless) trick of trying to feel the figure's shape through the bag is now completely impossible. Not that it ever really worked.
The Buyer's Playbook: When to Pull the Trigger on Confirmed
So, you know why they cost what they do. Now, when should you actually buy one? This isn't a one-size-fits-all answer. It's about your goals as a collector.
You should absolutely buy a confirmed colorway when:
* You only want ONE specific figure. This is the most obvious reason. If you only want the "Soy Milk" LABUBU from the "Let's Christmas" series, buying a confirmed one for $28 is way smarter than buying three blind boxes at $17 each ($51 total) and still not getting it. The math is simple. This is the core reason why a smart collector's playbook often involves buying a specific figure directly. * You're completing a set. You've bought eight boxes and have eight different figures, but you're missing just four to complete the set. Hunting for them via blind box is financial suicide. Buy the four you need confirmed and save yourself the headache and the pile of duplicates. * It's a gift. Trust me on this. Don't gamble when buying for someone else unless you know they love the thrill of the unknown. Getting them the exact character they've been posting about on their story is a guaranteed win. * The series is old or retired. Once a series is out of production, blind boxes dry up or their prices skyrocket. At that point, the confirmed secondary market is your only real option.
You should probably stick to blind boxes when:
* You love most of the designs. If you look at a series of 12 and would be genuinely happy with 7 or 8 of them, your odds are great! Go for the blind box. Enjoy the surprise.
A series just* dropped. This is when the hype is at its peak. Confirmed prices are at their most volatile and inflated. The "must-have" figure of the week can command an insane premium. If you can be patient, wait two or three weeks. The market almost always cools down as more cases are opened and supply increases. You're on a tight budget and love the gamble. Part of the fun of this hobby is* the surprise. If you have $20 to spend and want to have some fun, a blind box is a great little entertainment package.There are definitely unspoken truths about when it's the right call, and it often comes down to your personal tolerance for risk versus your desire for a specific outcome.
Our Take: The Wild Market of Confirmed Colorways
Okay, real talk. As a seller, I have a love-hate relationship with the hype cycle. It's exciting, but it also creates unrealistic expectations. The price of a confirmed colorway is pure, unadulterated supply and demand. It has nothing to do with the figure's "actual" worth.
I've seen it time and time again. Take The Monsters Camping series. The "Tent" LABUBU was the undisputed chase figure of that set (not counting the secret). When it first dropped, I saw it selling confirmed for $50-$60. People were paying it. It was wild. Six months later? The hype cooled, more product saturated the market, and you could find it for a much more reasonable $30. Patience is a collector's superpower.
Right now, as I'm writing this, the market for the "Fall in Wild" series is interesting. In the US, confirmed stock is a bit tight, keeping prices for the popular ones (like the one with the little mushroom hat) fairly high. But I know sellers in Asia who have easier access, and their prices are slightly lower, even after factoring in shipping. These global micro-markets are fascinating and show just how fluid the pricing is.
Don't fall into the trap of thinking a high confirmed price means a figure is a good "investment." 99% of the time, it's not. It's just a temporary imbalance of rabid demand and limited initial supply. Buy the figure because you love its design, not because you think its confirmed price will double.
What to Look For (and Avoid) When Buying
If you've decided to go the confirmed route, you're not just buying a toy; you're buying from a person or a shop. Here's my checklist from a seller's perspective.
First, the "Weight Trick" is a myth. Let me just put this to bed. I have handled thousands of these boxes. The idea that you can use a jeweler's scale to identify a specific character is nonsense for modern POP MART series. The manufacturing tolerances for the vinyl, paint, and even the cardboard box itself are wider than the minuscule weight difference between figures. Sellers who claim to use this method are either mistaken or not being truthful. We confirm by opening the box. Period.
Check the seller's reputation. Are they a known shop like ours, or a random person on a marketplace? Look at reviews. Do other buyers mention the packaging? Do they specify "box opened, foil sealed"? A good seller is transparent.
Beware of "too good to be true" prices. If the hottest figure in a new series is selling confirmed for the same price as a blind box, run. It's almost certainly a scam, or you're about to receive a counterfeit.
Ask about shipping. This is a big one for me. We ship every single figure, even a small confirmed one, in a sturdy cardboard box with bubble wrap. Receiving a collectible with a crushed original box is heartbreaking. A seller who just tosses it in a bubble mailer doesn't respect the product or the collector.
Ultimately, buying a labubu confirmed colorway is a fantastic way to guarantee you get the little monster that stole your heart. It takes the anxiety out of collecting and puts the control back in your hands. It's a trade-off, you swap the thrill of the gamble for the joy of a sure thing.
There's no wrong way to collect, as long as it brings you joy. So whether you're hunting for that one specific character to complete your display or just starting your journey, it's always fun to see what's out there. You can always browse our current LABUBU collection to see which confirmed cuties we've managed to track down this week.
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