So you saw it. That listing for a labubu confirmed secret. And your jaw hit the floor.
The price tag was probably somewhere between $100 and $300, maybe even more for an ultra-rare one. Your first thought was likely, "For a tiny vinyl toy?! Are they insane?" Your second thought was probably, "But I really want it."
I get it. I've been on both sides of that transaction. As a collector, I've felt the pull, the obsessive need to complete a set. As a seller running PopNya, I've been the one setting that price, and I've heard the feedback. "Why is it so expensive?" is a question I get almost daily.
Today, I'm not going to give you a sales pitch. I'm going to open up my books, figuratively speaking, and tell you the truth about the world of confirmed secrets. This is the buyer's playbook you need before you spend a single dollar.
The Anatomy of That Shocking Price Tag
That $150 price isn't just pulled out of thin air. It's a calculation of cost, risk, and labor that most buyers never see. When a seller like me decides to hunt for a secret to sell, we're not just buying one blind box. We're usually buying a full, sealed case.
A standard Pop Mart case contains 12 blind boxes. The retail price for a single LABUBU box is around $15-$17. So, right off the bat, the initial investment is:
12 boxes x ~$16/box = $192
This is our starting cost, before shipping, before platform fees, before anything else.
Now, the odds of a secret in a standard case are stated as 1/144. But for a sealed case of 12, there's usually a guaranteed chance of getting one of the 12 regular designs, with one of those spots potentially being replaced by a secret. The key word is potentially. I have personally cracked open sealed cases from my distributor and found… zero secrets. It's rare, but it happens. That's a $192 gamble.
Let's assume we get lucky and pull the secret. Great! But what about the other 11 figures? They are now "confirmed regular" figures. And here's the dirty little secret of the blind box world: a confirmed regular figure is worth less than a sealed blind box.
Why? Because the mystery is gone. The chance of it being a secret is zero.
So we sell the secret for, say, $120. We now have to sell the 11 regular figures. Some popular regulars might sell for close to retail, maybe $15. But the less popular ones? We might have to discount them to $10 or $12 just to move them. Let's be generous and say we sell all 11 for an average of $13 each.
11 regulars x $13 = $143
So, our total revenue is: $120 (Secret) + $143 (Regulars) = $263
Our initial cost was $192. So the profit is $71. That might sound okay, but we haven't factored in marketplace fees (which can be 10-15%), shipping supplies, the time spent opening, photographing, listing, and packing 12 individual items. After all that, the profit on a full case might be closer to $30-$40. And that's if everything goes perfectly and the case actually had a secret.
When you buy a labubu confirmed secret, you're not just paying for the toy. You're paying for the seller to absorb the entire financial risk of the other 11 boxes. You're paying for the guarantee.
How "Confirmation" ACTUALLY Works (And How to Not Get Scammed)
Back in the day, there were all sorts of rumors. You could shake the box and hear a difference. You could bring a tiny scale to the store and weigh them. Some people even tried magnets.
I'm telling you right now: for modern LABUBU releases, none of that works anymore.
Pop Mart isn't dumb. They've standardized their packaging significantly. The new boxes have more complex cardboard inserts designed to hold the figure snugly and, more importantly, to make every box feel and weigh almost exactly the same. The figures themselves are also made with more uniform plastic densities. I've held a secret and a regular from the same series in my hands, and the weight difference is negligible.
So how are sellers confirming them?
The answer is simple: We open the box.
This is the most crucial piece of information for you as a buyer. A "confirmed secret" today almost always means the outer paper box has been opened to reveal the character card inside. The figure itself should still be in its sealed foil bag.
This is the new standard of trust. And it leads to my number one tip for buying a confirmed secret online:
Ask the seller for proof of the pull.
What does this mean? A trustworthy seller, especially one active in the community, will often record themselves opening the case or the individual boxes. They do this to protect themselves and to prove authenticity to buyers.
Before you buy, send a polite message: "Hey, I'm really interested in this secret! Just to be sure, is the foil bag still sealed? And do you happen to have any photos or a short video from when you opened the box and saw the card?"
A good seller will have no problem with this. They'll likely have a photo of the opened box with the character card clearly visible next to the sealed foil bag. A shady seller will get defensive or ignore you. That's your red flag.
Real Talk: Is Buying a Confirmed Secret a Sucker's Move?
Okay, let's get real. Now that you know the economics, is it a smart move? My honest answer: it depends entirely on who you are as a collector.
For some people, buying a confirmed secret is absolutely the right call.
The Completionist: You're only missing ONE figure to complete your Monsters Macarons set. You've already bought six blind boxes and gotten three duplicates. At this point, buying the confirmed secret is probably cheaper* than continuing to gamble on blind boxes. You're saving money and frustration.* The Gifter: You want to buy the new Flower Elf LABUBU for your friend's birthday, and you know they are desperate for the Rose secret. Showing up with the guaranteed grail figure is a power move. You can't risk getting them a duplicate of one they already have. * The "I Hate Gambling" Collector: You just don't like the blind box mechanic. You appreciate Kasing Lung's art, you love the LABUBU character, but the anxiety of not knowing what you'll get ruins the fun. You'd rather see all the designs, pick your favorite, and buy it directly. For you, the premium price is a "no-stress" tax.
But for others, it's a mistake. And honestly, I sometimes feel it robs you of the best part of this hobby.
I will never forget pulling my first secret. It was a LABUBU from The Monsters Camping series. I'd bought two boxes from a local shop. I opened the first one and got the regular "Campfire" figure. Cute. I opened the second box, pulled out the card and... It was different. It had that holographic finish. My heart literally skipped a beat. The feeling of pulling that little vinyl Sasquatch out of the foil bag was pure, uncut joy. It was a rush.
You cannot buy that feeling.
When you buy a confirmed secret, it arrives in the mail, you open it, and you say, "Cool, here's the thing I paid for." It's a transaction. When you pull a secret, it's a story. It's a memory. It's magic.
My advice? If you're new to collecting, don't start by buying confirmed secrets. Buy a few blind boxes from a series you love. Experience the thrill, the hope, the slight disappointment of a duplicate, and the potential for that magic moment. Give yourself a chance to create that story. You can always hunt for the confirmed secret later if you strike out. And if you do decide to buy, you can always browse our available LABUBU figures to see what's in stock.
A Quick Market Observation: The Patience Principle
Never buy a confirmed secret during release week.
When a new series like the recent LABUBU The Monsters Constellation drops, the hype is at its absolute peak. FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) is a powerful drug. The very first secrets to hit the market will be listed at insane prices because sellers are targeting the most impatient, must-have-it-now collectors.
I watched the secret for the Exciting Macarons series, LYCHEE BERRY, hit eBay for over $200 the day of release. People bought it. Three weeks later, as more cases were opened and the supply increased, the price settled to a much more stable $110-$130. The people who waited saved themselves almost a hundred dollars.
The secondary market for designer toys is like a mini stock market. Let the initial IPO craziness die down. Unless it's a super limited collaboration, the price will almost always come down after the first month.
Our Take: The PopNya Philosophy
Here at PopNya, we have a mixed relationship with confirmed secrets. We know some of our customers want them, so we do the work of opening cases to make them available. We're always transparent about it, the box is opened, the foil is sealed, and we price it fairly based on our costs and the market.
But we also push the blind boxes just as hard, if not harder. Because we genuinely believe that's where the heart of the hobby is. We love getting emails from customers who pulled their first secret from a box they bought from our store. It feels like we all won.
Ultimately, we believe in giving you the choice. You can try your luck, or you can guarantee the outcome. As long as you know exactly what you're paying for, there's no wrong answer.So, the next time you see that eye-watering price on a labubu confirmed secret, you'll know the story behind it. It's not just the cost of a piece of vinyl. It's the cost of risk, labor, and certainty. Whether that certainty is worth the price is up to you.
Just do me a favor? If you decide to go for the blind box instead, and you pull the secret... Drop us a line. We want to hear the story.
Disclosure: PopNya may earn a commission if you purchase through links on this page.
