I still remember the feeling. It was the LABUBU The Monsters Camping series. I was six boxes in, chasing the adorable 'Soy Milk' figure. I pulled my third 'Campfire'. My third. The little flame was mocking me. I felt that familiar collector's ache, a mix of frustration and "just one more box" temptation.
That's the moment every collector eventually faces. The moment you stop and think, "I would pay extra right now to just get the one I actually want."
And that, right there, is the entire reason the labubu confirmed figure market exists.
It's a corner of the hobby that new collectors are often curious about, and seasoned collectors rely on. As someone who runs PopNya and handles these little monsters daily, I've seen it all. I've seen the joy of a customer finally getting their grail, and I've seen the confusion over why one little vinyl toy costs three times as much as the sealed box next to it.
So, let's actually talk about it. No marketing fluff. Just the real talk from a guy who opens way too many blind boxes for a living.
What "Confirmed Figure" Actually Means
This is the first point of confusion for a lot of people. A "confirmed" or "open box" figure is NOT a used toy.
Here's our process at the shop, which is the standard for any reputable seller:
1. We get a factory-sealed case of LABUBU. 2. We carefully open the outer blind box packaging. We're talking surgeon-like precision to not tear the beautiful box art. A little slice along the bottom flap is the usual method. 3. We slide out the contents. Inside is the character card, a small accessory (sometimes), and the figure itself, which is sealed in a foil or plastic bag. 4. We look at the card. The card tells us which figure is inside. 5. We put the figure (still in its sealed inner bag) and its corresponding card back into its original box.
That's it. The figure itself has never been touched by human hands. The inner bag is still sealed. You still get the satisfaction of tearing that open yourself. All we've done is taken the "blind" part out of the blind box. You are buying certainty.
If you ever see a "confirmed" figure for sale where the inner foil bag is also opened, run. That's a huge red flag. It could be a fake, a damaged return, or just something a sketchy seller is trying to offload.
The Real Math Behind Confirmed Pricing
Okay, here's the question I get asked the most: "The blind box is $15. Why is this specific confirmed figure $30?"
It's a fair question. It's not just random greed. There's a specific market logic at play, and it all comes down to what I call the "Popularity Tax."
When we open a case of 12, we typically get one of each of the 12 regular designs. They are not all created equal. Not in the eyes of the community, anyway.
Let's use the LABUBU Macaron series (the Zimomo one) as a perfect example.
- A blind box retailed for about $17.
- In that series, you have "Toffee." An absolutely top-tier, sought-after design. Everyone wanted it.
- You also have, say, "Grape." Still cute, but definitely not the fan favorite.
If we sell the confirmed "Toffee" for just a few bucks over retail, say $22, it will sell out in five minutes. We'll be left with a dozen "Grape" figures that might sit on the shelf for months. The shop can't survive that way.
So, we have to price based on demand.
- The "Toffee" (S-Tier design): Might be priced at $40-$50. This high price subsidizes the less popular figures.
- The "Grape" (C-Tier design): Might be priced at $18, just a dollar over retail. It's our "get it out of inventory" price.
- The Average Figure: Most other designs will fall somewhere in the $22-$28 range.
You're not just paying for the vinyl; you're paying for the service of not having to gamble. The price of a popular labubu confirmed figure is a direct reflection of how many boxes, on average, someone would have to open to get it.
And then there are the secrets.
Oh, the secrets. A standard LABUBU secret (or "chase") figure has a 1/144 ratio. The price for a confirmed secret can feel shocking. A $15 blind box can suddenly turn into a $180 confirmed figure. I wrote a whole piece on the real cost of a confirmed secret, but the short version is this: you're paying for the cost of the 143 other boxes that didn't have the secret in them. You're paying for the labor, the risk, and the sheer scarcity.
Real Talk: When You Should (and Shouldn't) Buy Confirmed
As a seller, I should be telling you to buy confirmed every time. It's better for my inventory management. But as a collector, I have to be honest. Sometimes, you shouldn't.
You SHOULD buy a confirmed figure when:
* You're a Set Finisher: You have 11 of the 12 figures from a series. You're sick of getting duplicates. Buying that last one confirmed will save you money and sanity. Just do it. * You're a "Grail" Hunter: You don't care about the rest of the Monsters Art series, you just want that stunning Van Gogh-inspired one. Buying confirmed is your best bet. * You're Buying a Gift: Your friend is a baker and you want to get them the Patisserie series Labubu holding a croissant. A confirmed purchase ensures your gift is thoughtful and specific, not a random roll of the dice. * The "Dud" Factor is High: You look at a new series and you love three of the designs, are "meh" on eight of them, and actively dislike one. The odds are not in your favor. Cherry-pick the ones you love.
But honestly, you SHOULD NOT buy a confirmed figure when:
* You're New to the Hobby: The absolute magic of designer toys is the blind box experience. The shake of the box. The gentle tear of the foil. The slow reveal. Don't rob yourself of that joy right away. Embrace the gamble for a while. * You Genuinely Like the Whole Series: If Kasing Lung drops a new set and you honestly can't find a single design you wouldn't be happy with, then why pay extra? Go blind. Every box is a winner. * You Have a Trading Community: If you have local friends who also collect, duplicates aren't a curse; they're currency. You can trade your extra "Campfire" for their extra "Soy Milk." * You Just Want a LABUBU: If you don't care which one you get and just want to add a cute little monster to your desk, grab a blind box! It's the cheapest way to get your hands on one.
There are a lot of nuances to this decision, and it really depends on your goals as a collector. It's a topic I feel so strongly about that I've shared more thoughts on when you should and shouldn't buy a confirmed box before.
A Seller's Warning: The "Weight Trick" and Other Myths
The internet is full of "pro tips" for beating the blind box system. As someone who has held literally thousands of these boxes, let me save you some time.
The Weight Trick is a Myth.
I have seen it with my own eyes. People in stores with tiny, pocket-sized digital scales, weighing each box, hoping to find a secret. Look, maybe ten years ago with a different toy brand, this worked. Today, with Pop Mart? It's a fool's errand.
The weight difference between figures is often less than a gram. The box itself has manufacturing variances. The little desiccant packet inside isn't a standard weight. For the newer series, the weight distribution is so uniform it's basically impossible to tell. You're more likely to get a weird look from the shop staff than you are to find a secret. Don't be that person.
The Shake Test is a Lie.
Shaking a box to guess the figure inside is another common ritual. You're just going to damage the figure or its accessories. Don't do it.
The only "trick" that works is having X-ray vision or, you know, just buying the confirmed figure you want.
Our Take
Look, I love the thrill of a blind box as much as anyone. But my collector-brain is different from my seller-brain. As a collector, I want the surprise. As a seller, I want to provide a solution.
Buying a labubu confirmed figure isn't "cheating." It's just a different way to collect. It's for the person who has moved past the gambling phase and entered the curating phase of their collection. It's a tool to build the exact display you want, without the mountain of duplicates in your closet.
Is it more expensive? Yes, on a per-figure basis for the popular ones. Is it cheaper than buying 10 blind boxes to find the one you really wanted? Almost always.
At PopNya, we offer both. We want you to feel the thrill of the unknown if that's your jam. But we also have your back when you're tired of duplicates and just need that one specific monster to make your shelf complete. It's why we spend the time carefully opening and sorting, so you have the choice.
So next time you're staring at a wall of blind boxes, think about what kind of collector you are today. Are you feeling lucky? Or are you feeling certain? There's no wrong answer.
If you've decided certainty is what you need, you can always browse our LABUBU collection to see if we've got the one you're looking for. We're always adding new series and restocking old favorites.
Disclosure: PopNya may earn a commission if you purchase through links on this page.
